Asymmetric volatility spillovers between economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Evidence from China

This study explores the spillovers between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock market realized volatility (RV). The monthly index of Chinese and US EPU and RV are used to analyze the pairwise directional spillovers. We find that RV is a net receiver that is more vulnerable to shocks from U.S. EPU than to shocks from Chinese EPU. We further decompose the RV into good and bad volatility to test the asymmetric spillover effect between the stock market and EPU. The results suggest that EPU has a bigger effect on bad volatility in the stock market throughout most of the sample period. However, we find that good volatility spillovers become larger during periods of stimulated reform, whereas bad volatility spillovers become larger during periods of international disputes. We show that Chinese stock market volatility is sensitive to both U.S. and Chinese EPU and that the spillover is asymmetric in different periods.     

Good governance,innovation, economic growth and the stock market turnover rate

This study is primarily aimed at testing the theory of good governance in the group of eight developing Islamic countries. Using a panel data regression model, we examined the data to determine the relationship between political economy and economic development of eight countries, for the period 2005 to 2014. The results show a significant positive correlation between the rule of law, corruption control with economic growth and stock market turnover rate proxy. The examination through an artificial neural network resulted in a higher determination coefficient and less average standard error. This, in turn, reveals that the fitting power and efficiency of this method is higher than the panel data regression model. Furthermore, the findings of this study suggest that the application of good governance theory calls for more inquiry.     

论康德纯粹实践理性的实现——兼论康德与亚里士多德至善概念的主要异同

康德的纯粹理性在理论上的解决必须回到实践中,这就是康德纯粹实践理性的根本任务之一。纯粹实践理性本身的实现才是纯粹理性在实践上的完成。康德对纯粹实践理性的实现指出具体的道路或步骤,即实践理性的对象以及其对象得以实现的保证。这在康德哲学中分别是至善问题和三大悬设(公设)的问题。比较了康德与亚里士多德至善概念的主要异同,最后给出解决康德伦理学的解释学路线,即康德和亚里士多德伦理学结合的可能性。     

论政府在房地产市场诚信体系建设中的责任

目前,在我国房地产市场快速发展的同时,房地产市场诚信体系却存在严重扭曲,已经成为制约房地产市场健康发展的严重障碍。树立政府行政诚信是政府在房地产市场诚信体系建设中的首要责任。政府应履行的基本责任是:务必坚持科学的引导和规划,夯实房地产市场诚信体系建设的基础;务必坚持严格的管理和规范,强化房地产市场诚信体系建设的主体;务必坚持有效的监督与控制,保障房地产市场诚信体系建设的秩序,以期真正建立自律和他律有机结合,并能为市场各主体接受且自觉遵循的房地产市场诚信体系。     

试论企业公关利用“权威效应”

企业公关借用名人名地或制造令人信服的事实，可以产生“权威效应’。可以增强和提高企业和产品的知名度和美誉度，增强企业产品的市场竞争力．但是导演“权威效应”，必须建立在企业产品的高质量的基础上．利用权威要注意以下问题：其一，必须在市场调研的基础上，客观评价自身实力，维护权威宣传的真实性和客观性；其二，选择名人权威，要在本企业相关区域中的行家里手中着手；不可见名人就搬；其三，要尊重和爱护名人名地的声誉；其四，要标新立异，杜绝平庸，方能产生“轰动效应．”     

乡镇政府行政权与村民自治权关系论纲

我国农村基层社会存在乡镇政府行政权和村民自治权两种运行体系。受诸多因素的影响,在实践中乡镇政府行政权与村民自治权之间交错混淆,经常发生冲突,这严重制约了农村社会的健康发展与和谐社会的构建。因此,我们有必要厘清乡镇政府行政权与村民自治权之间的关系,明确它们之间的运行边界和互动关系,确保乡镇政府行政权与村民自治权的运行规范、有序、和谐。     

对拼车成因及其性质的探究

拼车作为新兴出行方式,为美国、德国、新加坡和我国香港所倡导。利于节约能源和交通成本,以及环境的可持续性发展。拼车以友好互助、节约成本为主旨,而黑出租车属于非法营运,具有营利性,两者截然不同。营利性拼车是典型的"黑车",为法律所禁止。非营利性拼车分无偿与有偿,我国现行法律空白。前者又称"好意同乘",学者界定为民事互助行为,是社会良好风德的体现;后者是以节约成本为目的,顺路搭车的一种民事行为。拼车人支付的费用只是对车主所花费用的分担,不具有营利性,不能定为非法营运。     

“好”的不确定性、“坏”的不确定性与股票市场定价——基于中国股市高频数据分析

不确定性并不是都是“坏”的,“好”的不确定性也同样存在。本文采用Barndorff-Nielsen et al.(2010)提出的已实现半方差作为股票市场“好”的不确定性和“坏”的不确定性的代理指标,并在此基础上构建了相对符号变差(RSV),分析RSV对中国股市定价的影响。基于2007-2017年中国A股5分钟高频数据的实证研究发现:(1)与理论解释相一致,RSV与股票收益之间呈现负相关关系。无论是基于单变量分组、双变量分组还是公司层面的截面回归,这种影响在经济上和统计上都显著。(2)RSV是独立于已实现偏度的一个重要定价因子,且RSV对股票的定价能力强于已实现偏度的定价能力。(3)RSV对中国股市的影响是状态依存的,相对于经济景气程度高的状态,在经济景气程度低的状态下RSV定价影响更大。(4)基于RSV构建的投资组合的表现明显优于市场超额收益率组合、SMB组合和HML组合的表现。     

Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs

Forecasting research in the humanitarian context is scarce. In this literature review, our goal is not only to show why forecasting research is important for the humanitarian sector, but also to identify what has been done so far, and where are the needs for further research. We conducted a structured literature search in Scopus, Web of Science, ABI Inform, and Google Scholar resulted in only 38 papers published between 1990 and 2018. Based on our findings we highlight three case studies as exemplary research in forecasting within the humanitarian context and list seven future research streams with specific research needs identified in each stream.